October 1, 2008
In anticipation of the launches of Nokia's Comes With Music and Sony Ericsson's Play Now plus services, Jupiter has just published a report that assesses the likely impact that such Subsidized Mobile Music Services will have on the broader digital music market.
To assess the impact Jupiter fielded a consumer survey, but more importantly built a sophisticated adoption scenario forecast – in fact it is probably too sophisticated for its own good.
Some of the key findings of the report are:
– Subsidized services have strong potential but consumer appetite for paying anything at all is limited: just 5 percent of Europeans said they would pay more for a mobile phone or contract to get unlimited music downloads for one year. Thus 100% subsidizes are the best route to mass market adoption
– Mid term growth will be tempered by handset replacement cycles and consumer understanding of the value proposition
– The good news for record labels is that over half of interested consumers are file sharers
– Subsidized services will likely only grow European digital music revenues by 15 percent by year five, with licensing accounting for the lion's share