Just How Big A Deal Will Comes With Music Be?

Forrester
October 1, 2008

In anticipation of the launches of Nokia's Comes With Music and Sony Ericsson's Play Now plus services, Jupiter has just published a report that assesses the likely impact that such Subsidized Mobile Music Services will have on the broader digital music market.

To assess the impact Jupiter fielded a consumer survey, but more importantly built a sophisticated adoption scenario forecast – in fact it is probably too sophisticated for its own good.

Some of the key findings of the report are:

– Subsidized services have strong potential but consumer appetite for paying anything at all is limited: just 5 percent of Europeans said they would pay more for a mobile phone or contract to get unlimited music downloads for one year. Thus 100% subsidizes are the best route to mass market adoption
– Mid term growth will be tempered by handset replacement cycles and consumer understanding of the value proposition
– The good news for record labels is that over half of interested consumers are file sharers
– Subsidized services will likely only grow European digital music revenues by 15 percent by year five, with licensing accounting for the lion's share

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