Which is it, shortage of mainframe skills … or jobs?

There is a lot of noise lately from 2 camps – one swears that the availability of people with mainframe skills is drying up rapidly – they either forecast dire shortages, or note problems hiring for certain positions internally. Most of the trade press articles are firmly in this camp.

Inevitably, when a trade-press article runs on the shortage of qualified people, individuals with mainframe skills lambaste the author by noting their difficulty in finding a job that requires their skills. I recently started monitoring a Twitter site – @MainframeCOBOL – which tweets mainframe job postings at the rate of several a day. Some folks note that it is a salary issue – employers don't want to pay conventional salary rates given the job market.

But the seeming disconnect between the 2 camps makes me wonder - Where does reality lie in your shops? If you use mainframe technology – are you having trouble hiring or keeping people with mainframe skills? Is there really a glut of qualified people? Is it any different than other skill-sets? Is the supply of folks with other skills appreciably different?