December 21, 2011
My speech at Le Web (Three Social Thunderstorms) continues to stimulate debate. While many do not agree with my analysis, the discussion has challenged conventional wisdom and helped people see alternative futures — a longtime Forrester value . . .
Here are six sites that carry interesting rebuttals and threads: Both Sides Of The Table, GigaOM, Fred Wilson’s Sunday Debate, Logic Emotion, Technorati, and Techcrunch. The latter is a video discussion.
A few clarifications that may heighten the dialogue:
1) The Web is dying, not the Internet. The Web is software that we've used since circa 1994 to communicate information over the network called the Internet. Web replaced other software that used to dominate the Internet — Usenet, Gopher, user groups, etc.. The Internet is alive and well — it's the software on top that will change.
2) HTML5 isn't App Internet. Yes, it will provide many improvements that will enchance the "Web App" experience, but as HTML improves, the technologies underlying App Internet will move forward at the same or faster rates. Confused about Web Apps versus App Internet? Here's a simple litmus test: Turn off or unplug the network. If you can still work, you're likely in App Internet land. If work stops, you're probably using a Web App.
3) Many problems will plague the App Internet. From security issues, to the more closed market structure, to business models (Apple takes too high a percentage!), App Internet remains immature and flawed. But App Internet's superior user experience and leverage of the amazing power inflation at the periphery of the network will outweigh the downside, giving the market sufficient incentive to fix the problems.
4) Post Social (POSO) does not mean no social. Social will thrive in its "post" period — increasing in value, injecting refined simplicity and useability, and vastly lowering the waste/time spent quotient. The golden age of social lies ahead as improved offerings replace much of the first wave.
I hope this sheds a little more light.