February 9, 2015
Sorry for that rather legalistic/nerdy headline. As I mentioned in my last post, Forrester's data on Making Sense of New Video Consumption Behaviors stimulated a discussion of methodologies, and particularly the challenges with our self-reported survey methodology. I agree, this approach has some flaws, as does any research methodology. That's why we're trained here to look for multiple data points and then to interpret them to give as accurate a view as we can of what's happening in the market.
So I just came across an article that I had read while I was writing that report which provides additional evidence. In it, NBC Universal's AlanWurtzel describes the digital viewing numbers they are beginning to provide, using behavior data from Nielsen, Rentrak, Omniture, and Hulu. These numbers point in the same direction, and perhaps point to even larger changes than Forrester's data indicate.
The article cites numbers for two shows, on a live-plus-seven-day basis. For The Blacklist, digital viewing accounts for 17% of the total viewership, while digital views are 37% of Parks & Recreation's total.
These data sets and NBC's methodology have their own gaps and weaknesses, no doubt. But I believe that is a matter of degree, not direction. These numbers — and Forrester's — don't have the degree of precision needed for the currency of the TV market, but they clearly indicate that a significant change is happening in consumer viewing behavior that advertisers need to factor into their planning.