February 23, 2016
The answer: In the markets included in our latest Asia Pacific Online Retail Forecast— China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia — total online retail revenues will nearly double from $733 billion in 2015 to $1.4 trillion in 2020. For perspective, $1.4 trillion is about the same amount spent online in 2015 in every market that Forrester forecasts across the globe combined.
In our latest report, Asia Pacific Online Retail Forecast 2015 To 2020, (subscription required) we look at the growth in these markets over the next five years and some of the key trends shaping the development of online retail in each one, including the following:
- China’s eCommerce market grows despite the economic slowdown. 2015 marked a global eCommerce turning point: China surpassed the US to become the largest eCommerce market in the world, but its economy also dipped below 7% for the first time since 2009. While the days of staggering year over year eCommerce growth in China are behind us, current growth rates are solid and more consistent with other mature markets in the region, like Japan and South Korea.
- India is the fastest growing eCommerce market in the region, but is not without its obstacles. The smallest eCommerce market in our forecast, India’s online sales will grow by more than five-fold by 2020 as the number of online buyers and per capita online spending increase rapidly. However, in addition to underdeveloped logistics and challenging last-mile connectivity, India’s cash-based culture still poses a challenge for eCommerce firms.
- Japan, South Korea and Australia are mature eCommerce markets. Each of these countries has all of the characteristics of a mature eCommerce market: high Internet and broadband subscriber penetration, a large percentage of online shoppers, and high per-capita online spending. But each market has unique characteristics that eCommerce leaders operating in these markets, or thinking about doing so, need to know and consider when crafting their offerings.
I’d love to hear your thoughts and predictions about eCommerce in Asia Pacific in the next five years in the comments below. For more analysis and the details around market sizing for the next five years, Forrester clients can access the report here and can connect with me via Inquiry.