Andrew Bartels

VP, Principal Analyst

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A Tale Of Three Software Vendors: Microsoft Up, IBM Lagging, SAP In Between In Q2 2010

Andrew Bartels July 27, 2010
To paraphrase Charles Dickens, Q2 2010 seemed like the best of times or the worst of times for the big software vendors.  For Microsoft, it was the best of times; for IBM, it was (comparatively) the worst of times; and for SAP it was in between.  IBM on June 19, 2010, reported total revenue growth of […]
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Despite Fears About Economies In Europe And US, Forrester Still Forecasts A Strong 2010 IT Market, With 7.8% Growth Globally

Andrew Bartels July 21, 2010
Expectations about economic growth prospects and the resulting implications for tech markets have been gyrating wildly in 2010. First, there were fears that the Greek debt crisis would spread to Portugal, Spain, Italy, maybe even the UK, leading to a breakup of the euro zone and a renewed recession in Europe. Then, as worries about […]
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Software Maintenance Fees May Not Be Invulnerable To Change After All

Andrew Bartels June 29, 2010
TECH DYNAMICS: Last Friday, June 25th, the US House and Senate reached agreement on a financial reform bill, which is likely to pass and be signed into law.* At first glance, this legislation has nothing to do with the IT industry directly. But buried in this bill is a provision regarding debit card fees, which […]
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Will SAP Fall Victim To The Innovator’s Dilemma? – Thoughts From SAPPHIRE NOW 2010

Andrew Bartels May 27, 2010
TECH DEVELOPMENTS: I have been re-reading Clayton M. Christensen’s The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail in preparation for a session that Chris Mines and I are running on adapting to the Next Big Thing at Forrester’s IT Forum 2010.*  Last week, I attended SAP’s SAPPHIRE NOW conference in Orlando, listened to […]
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Software License Revenues Roar Back In Q1 2010 — And Why Licensed Software Will Co-Exist With SaaS Beyond 2010

Andrew Bartels April 29, 2010
TECH DEVELOPMENTS:  With SAP's release of its Q1 2010 earnings, it is clear that those who saw an irresistible shift from licensed software to software-as-a-service (SaaS) are a bit premature in their obituaries for the licensed software model.  SAP's license revenues increased by 11% in euros, and by 18% when its euro revenues are converted […]
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IBM’s Q1 2010 Results In Align With Our Expectations — A Bellwether for Other Vendor Results To Come

Andrew Bartels April 21, 2010
TECH DEVELOPMENTS: Like half a dozen Forrester colleagues, I have been stuck in London since last week due to the Icelandic volcano's disruption of air travel.  So, this allows me a UK perspective on IBM's results for Q1 2010.   These turned out to be very much what I expected (see "US And Global IT Market […]
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The Tech Recovery of 2010 Is Underway

Andrew Bartels April 8, 2010
As I predicted in January 2010 (see January 11, 2010, "US and Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009"), a tech recovery has started in the US and around the world.  In my updated IT market forecast (see April 8, 2010, "US and Global IT Market Outlook: Q1 2010"), I point out that IT market indicators […]
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Launching A New Blog On Tech Economics

Andrew Bartels March 18, 2010
With Forrester’s new blogging platform in place, I have the opportunity to launch a series of blogs about tech economics.  What do I mean by tech economics?  To me, tech economics first means how the larger economy and the tech sector interact.  I am interested both in how economic conditions impact the demand for technology […]
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Q4 2009 IT Market Data As We Expected Shows End of Tech Downturn

Andrew Bartels February 1, 2010
The first reports on the IT market in Q4 2009 are now in, and they are in line with our prediction that the tech market recession ended in that quarter (see US And Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009). Overall, the tech market in Q4 2009 was more or less flat with the same quarter […]
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Global Tech Recovery Will Drive US IT Market Growth Of 6.6% And 8.2% Globally (In Dollars) In 2010

Andrew Bartels January 12, 2010
2009 was a miserable year for tech vendors, especially for sellers of capital equipment like PCs, servers, routers, and licensed software, and for systems integrators who helped implement that software.   2010 will be a much better year, especially for these very same vendors.   We’re not talking boom yet, so we are not predicting double-digit growth […]
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Smart Computing Will Create Growth Opportunities — and Challenges — for IT Vendors

Andrew Bartels December 10, 2009
Since 2004, I have been arguing in my research that the tech market would enter a new cycle of innovation and growth starting in 2008. This thesis was based on my review of the US tech market since the 1950s, which showed a pattern of eight-to-ten year cycles of strong growth in tech purchases, followed […]
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As Expected, Data on Q3 2009 US IT Market Showing Continued Decline, But With Signs of Nearing Bottom

Andrew Bartels October 29, 2009
This morning, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released preliminary data on the US Gross Domestic Product in Q 3 2009, which included data on business investment in computer equipment, software, and other IT equipment (principally communications equipment).  The headline news is the 3.5% increase in real GDP in the US from […]
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Forrester’s Updated IT Market Forecast Shows Worse 2009, But Still Positive Outlook for 2010

Andrew Bartels September 29, 2009
In our latest US and Global IT market forecast (http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=53305), Forrester stays steady with our June 2009 projections that the US tech market will start to recover from the downturn in Q4 2009, with the global tech market improving in 2010. However, the 2009 growth rate now shows a bigger decline than our earlier forecasts, […]
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IBM Moves Ahead In Smart Computing, But Still Has Ways To Go

Andrew Bartels July 10, 2009
IBM threw a big event in New York City on Thursday, October 1, and Friday, October 2, to publicize its Smarter Cities initiative, part of its Smarter Planet marketing message. The event featured an impressive list of politicians (Mayor Bloomberg, NY Governor Patterson, governors from Vermont and North Carolina) and CEOs (CEOs from ABB, Verizon, […]
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