Building The Scenarios
The future will look little like the past. We will see new players, new rules, and new ways to differentiate and create value….and new ways to lose and lose big. Scenario planning needs to put a stake in the ground as to what 2020 or 2021 will look like and act like. What are the emerging forms of travel? What will customers demand and value — and what (and how fast) will they shed old habits? Who emerges and with what business model that may set a new bar for the market? And when and how will autonomous vehicles enter the fray? Anticipating tomorrow helps you clarify strategic options and puts time on the clock in a market revving up for change.
What are the journeys of the future? Different forms of ridesharing will emerge and evolve; forms that focus on orchestrating in- and out-of-car experiences. How will insurance fit into that puzzle? Telematics and on-demand policies have taken the first step in creating new experiences. These experiences will ultimately be influenced by richer situation data (time-of-day, weather, traffic, etc.) that will put more meaning to the idea of on-demand. More complex questions about what travel will be, who orchestrates the journey, and whether customers will rethink when and how they buy insurance loom — creating advantage if you apply future journey mapping for product and experience design, and creating severe risk if your focus turns to preserving old ways.
The capture and use of situational data, risk assessment and underwriting, the end-to-end claims process, and customer engagement will all be squarely in the digital realm. Not simply digitizing today’s model but creating a nimble digital environment that can adapt to natural market evolution and constant disruption. Insurtech and commerce platforms will see few barriers in mastering digital; they were born that way. You will have to match or better those capabilities to stay in front of the mobility market.
The vertically integrated insurance model will fade into the background and be replaced by ecosystems that live closer to customers’ day-to-day lives and anchored on mobility orchestration. Work, entertainment, and travel consist of day-to-day individual decisions about mobility centered on what is best and easiest. We have early signals that customers are showing greater confidence in intelligent agents, potentially disintermediating ecosystem partners from customers. How you imagine and participate in these ecosystems will decide your role with the customer and your role in the market.
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