Andrew Bartels

VP, Principal Analyst

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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Small Businesses And State And Local Governments Will Be The Prime Vectors Of Tech Market Recession

Andrew Bartels October 9, 2020
When President Trump broke off negotiations with congressional Democrats on a new economic stabilization package on Tuesday, October 6, the already high risk of a deeper economic recession shot up — and with it, increasing prospects of a tech market recession lasting well into 2021. The president has backtracked to a degree, with calls for […]
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Too Soon To Declare The Worst Is Over In The US Tech Market Downturn

Andrew Bartels September 29, 2020
Remember the old Road Runner cartoons where Wile E. Coyote runs over a cliff chasing the Road Runner then hangs in midair for a couple of seconds before plummeting? Right now, the tech market reminds me of that cartoon. Recent tech vendor earnings and other data suggest the pandemic recession’s damage to the US tech […]
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Q2 2020 US GDP Report Reveals Negative Surprises For US Economy But Positives For US Tech Market

Andrew Bartels July 30, 2020
US GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter. Learn the implications for the economy and the tech sector specifically.
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2020 German, French, And UK Tech Markets All Likely To Fall, With The UK’s The Most Vulnerable

Andrew Bartels July 22, 2020
Our tech market forecast for the three economies shows tech spending will fall 5% to 7% in the best-case scenario.
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Canadian Tech Market Will Fall At Least 7% In 2020 Due To The COVID-19 Recession

Andrew Bartels July 20, 2020
Vice President Andrew Bartels examines the swirling factors impacting the Canadian tech market in his latest forecast.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Are Software Vendors Too Optimistic, Or Are We Too Pessimistic About The Software Market Outlook?

Andrew Bartels July 14, 2020
Vice President Andrew Bartels puts the latest Forrester tech market forecasts up against the largest software vendors' outlooks. Read the takeaways here.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: IMF World Forecasts Of Deeper 2020 Pandemic Recessions Foreshadow Weaker Tech Markets

Andrew Bartels July 6, 2020
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now projecting most countries will see real GDP fall by 7% to 10% in 2020. Find out what this means for tech market growth rates.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Warning Signs Inside The SaaS Vendors’ Recent Earnings Reports

Andrew Bartels June 25, 2020
What do the most recent software spending figures reveal about the long-term impact of the pandemic on the tech market? VP Andrew Bartels breaks it all down by reviewing some of the top SaaS vendors’ earnings reports.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: The US Jobs Report Does Not Mean A Quick End To The Pandemic Recession

Andrew Bartels June 12, 2020
Last Friday’s news of a drop in the unemployment rate to 13.3% and an increase of 2.5 million in employment was unexpected good news (see the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) recent Employment Situation Summary). The US stock market promptly rallied, and on Monday, June 8, the S&P 500 Index surpassed the level at […]
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: What If Stores Reopen And No One Comes?

Andrew Bartels May 26, 2020
Despite state and local governments allowing stores to reopen, consumer traffic will most likely remain well below pre-pandemic levels, making it likely that the pandemic recession will last well into 2021.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: What The US Jobs Market Report Tells Us About The Tech Market Outlook

Andrew Bartels May 16, 2020
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its Employment Situation Summary for April 2020. That report has implications for the US tech market outlook in the pandemic-driven recession because the specific industries that are shedding workers are the ones most likely to cut their tech spending sharply in 2020. The data confirms most of […]
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: What Q1 2020 Vendor Earnings Tell Us About The Tech Market Outlook

Andrew Bartels May 1, 2020
A detailed analysis of how the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the high-tech market from Vice President Andrew Bartels.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: US Q1 2020 Data Shows 4.8% Drop In GDP, 7.1% Fall In Tech Investment

Andrew Bartels April 29, 2020
US economic growth slowed more dramatically than expected in the first quarter. The picture for the tech market was mixed.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: Why Scenario A Is Looking More Likely For Some Countries And Scenario B More Likely For Others

Andrew Bartels April 21, 2020
When will the global tech markets recover? Vice President Andrew Bartels provides a four-factor model to assess which recovery scenario is more likely in various regions.
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Forecasting In Uncertainty: US Tech Market Forecast Shows A Best-Case 5% Drop In 2020

Andrew Bartels April 14, 2020
Forrester has just released its updated forecasts for the US tech market in 2020, factoring in the impacts of COVID-19 and the efforts to contain its spread. There is currently a 60% probability of a 9% fall in 2020, with a smaller decrease of 5% in 2021, though this is likely to shift.
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Forecasting In A Time Of Uncertainty: Some Guidance On The Outlook For Tech Markets In Different Countries In The Pandemic

Andrew Bartels April 7, 2020
Vice President Andrew Bartels reviews a recent OECD report forecasting the impact of coronavirus on GDP.
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There’s Still Time For SaaS Clients To Ask For And SaaS Vendors To Offer A Recession Clause In SaaS Contracts

Andrew Bartels March 24, 2020
Cloud software has become more common, whether in the form of multi-tenant software-as-a-service (SaaS) or single-instance hosted software. Companies in many cases have signed on to multi-year contracts with these cloud software vendors, yet the prices in those contracts are often based on usage metrics such as number of users, number of customers, or number […]
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Forecasting In A Time Of Rapid Change: Tips For CIOs And Tech Vendor CEOs In Charting The COVID-19 Outlook

Andrew Bartels March 23, 2020
Tips and techniques in preparing tech market forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Where to get data, how to form models, and where to scale back.
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The Odds Of A Tech Market Decline In 2020 Have Just Gone Up To 50%

Andrew Bartels March 16, 2020
Tech spending forecasts revised amid “sharp deterioration” in the economic outlook.
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Slowing Growth For US Tech Budgets In 2020 And 2021, Varying By Industry

Andrew Bartels March 5, 2020
Even before the threat of coronavirus, the US economy was poised for a slowdown in 2020. Slowing real GDP growth of 2% or less in turn will lead to slower growth of US tech budgets: from 4.5% in 2019 to 4.2% in 2020 and 4% in 2021, according to Forrester’s latest US tech budget forecast: […]
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